The Times, Xarabank and Statistics
The headline of an article by Herman Grech in the Times of Saturday 24th February tells us that, according to the latest Xarabank survey 'Labour [would] win if election is held today'. Then it proceeds to inform us that the sample on which this conclusion was based consisted of individuals who in the last election voted predominantly for Labour (at least those of them who had voted in 2003 or who chose to answer the question). Leaving aside the obvious fact that there is a problem with the sample (which grossly understates the PN's vote and overstates those of both Labour and Alternattiva), one may simply note that, when those who did not express a clear voting intention are left out of the calculation, the situation would have changed from MLP 53% PN 45.5% AD 1.5% in 2003 (in the real world: MLP 47.51% PN 51.79% AD 0.68%) to MLP 54.5% PN 43.02% AD 2.45%. This is not a huge change from this sample's 2003 performance, and would mean that the two parties are virtually neck and neck (while Alternattiva will not go far beyond the 1% mark).
Now, I don't know who will win the next general election, although I have always more or less assumed that Labour are in pole position. This survey would suggest that the race is more open than I had thought. Having said that, I'm not at all convinced that a survey that screws up its sample this badly should be given too much weight (the next round of local council elections should give us a clearer indication, I think). Nor, I must say, did the Times cover itself with glory with its interpretation.
1 Comments:
Charles Mangion's ghost writer seems to think he can make Maltese voters jump ship before the vessel arrives in port presumably to hasten the demise of the current administration, such is his zeal to assume the reins of power. Both Mangion and his ghost writer seem to forget that in the modern state, individual contributions are judged on merit rather than on political affiliation. G-d help us if our livelihood depended on who was "up" there which is what is being asserted here.
The country mandated Eddie Fenech Adami's team because it wanted to embrace the European way of doing things. Labour's insularity is still a grave danger when you consider we are losing competitiveness on a number of important fronts. International Socialism is NOT a force for positive change I'm afraid. It's an excuse to remain dangerously tied to industrial labour practices that have already cost the country dear.
Mangion's would-be State sounds like an tacky version of the Blair Witch Project - making it, I might add, even less likely (were that a distant possibility which it is not) that I'd vote Labour in 2008. Or ever.
Post a Comment
<< Home