Israel's biggest dilemma

 

Today's Haaretz carries an extremely interesting article by Riad Ali, an Israeli Druze journalist, which discusses, among other things, the attitude of Israel's Arabs during the present conflict.

Most Israelis lose little sleep over what their Muslim compatriots may be thinking. They would probably be well-advised to start doing so. Israel's Arabs don't have much weight in the Knesset but they still make up over 20% of its population. If only citizens are counted (and the Arab residents of East Jerusalem are therefore excluded) they still make up approximately 16%. A quarter of the children born in Israel today are Arabs. This proportion will continue to grow as the birth rate of Israeli Muslims in particular is among the highest of all groups in the world, while that of Jews is declining. Wikipedia's article on Israeli Arabs quotes Dr. Wahid Abd Al-Magid, the editor of Al-Ahram's "Arab Strategic Report" as predicting that "...The Arabs of 1948 (i.e. Israeli Arabs) may become a majority in Israel in 2035, and they will certainly be the majority in 2048." If he is right, it would mean that the Jewish State would have existed for less than 100 years.

With such a demographic timebomb ticking, one might be forgiven for writing Israel off altogether. Yet, demographic trends are not destiny. If it starts early enough, Israel can contain the threat by making greater efforts at assimilating its Arab Israeli population (including the Bedouins, with their astronomically high birthrates) while stepping up the immigration of non-Jews (Eastern Europeans, Asians etc) into Israel and integrating them into Israeli, if not Jewish society. As a last resort, it could always grant Israeli passports to the approximately 10 million non-Israeli Jews complete with the right to vote. Yisrael Beiteinu's leader, Avigdor Liberman, has proposed the exchange of Arab Israeli areas such as Umm Al-Fahm with the West Bank settlement blocks in a deal with the Palestinians. This would reduce the number of Israel's Arab citizens by about half but most Israeli politicians reject it either on the grounds that it discriminates against the Arabs concerned or that it involves giving up part of Eretz Israel.

This demographic and political drama will play out during the lifetimes of many of us alive today. We would be well advised to observe it very closely and not to ignore its lessons as our countries too may, in the longer term, be heading towards a similar fate.